The candidate announcement we all saw coming finally dropped yesterday: City Rep Brian Kennedy is running for mayor. Some of us had this pegged back in 2022 when he was still vying for a city council seat. I’ve never met the guy, but it’s clear he’s the front-runner in this election, regardless of which consultants he hires. Because the truth is, consultants don’t win elections; candidates do. Kennedy made a savvy move by blasting out text messages early. He’s already made more direct voter contact than his opponents, despite his opponents getting an early start with blockwalking.
Now, don’t get me wrong—door knocking is super important. Each touch at the door is incredibly impactful, and I’m a huge advocate for it. But let’s be real: in your best hour, you might knock on 25 doors and talk to six voters. (Which is why you need to hire blockwalkers.) With text messages, you can reach tens of thousands of voters in hours. These texts complement the groundwork, like an air campaign before the troops hit the ground. Voters know you’re running, they have your website, and they can even text you back. And yes, some voters will text back this early that they are supporting you or supporting your opponents. This early engagement helps start building Support ID lists which will be extremely important as the campaign progresses and eventually gets into GOTV.
City Rep Cassandra Hernandez was supposed to be the favorite, but the gas card scandal has left her with a mountain to climb. I do believe, though, she is chipping away at this mountain through her blockwalking efforts, but I think it is going to take a lot of face-to-face interaction at the door, and I don’t know if there is enough time to get to enough voters by Election Day.
CIty Rep Cassandra Hernandez, photo via Facebook.com
So what about Renard Johnson? It’s simple. He can’t win. It doesn’t matter how much he spends or who endorses him. Remember Carlos Gallinar? Good chance you don’t. He had the same money and endorsements Johnson has now, but he had zero Name ID and was up against candidates who had already been elected to the office he was seeking, both of which made the runoff. Come to think of it, he couldn’t even finish ahead of Veronica Carbajal. (I just looked it up, he finished the race with 7%. Damn.)
Renard Johnson, photo via Renardfor915.com
Sure, Johnson is in a better position than Gallinar since this is an open seat race, but still, he’s completely unknown while facing opponents with big Name ID.
With the filing deadline still a couple of months away, here’s my prediction for the election results (obviously, if someone big like Beto O’Rourke entered the race, that would change everything):
– Kennedy: 41%
– Hernandez: 31%
– Johnson: 19%
-others combined: 9%
“But Chris! You’ve never even met Kennedy or Johnson. How can you be so sure?” Because in political campaigns for office, name ID is everything, and Johnson doesn’t have it. Campaign strategy won’t play a significant role here. All three candidates will run sophisticated, smart campaigns. I worked for Kennedy’s opponent in his 2022 City Council race and saw firsthand how Kennedy dominates every aspect of the political game. His campaign will blanket the city with door hangers and other traditional tactics. Most importantly, he’s a likable candidate with a record at City Hall and a message that will resonate with most voters.
City Rep Brian Kennedy, photo via electbriankennedy.com
No one in this race is more experienced in campaigns than Hernandez, and she carries the biggest name ID. She’ll work tirelessly and run a sophisticated campaign. But the gas card scandal is a misstep that voters haven’t forgotten. Plus, her policy differences with Kennedy probably won’t sit well with Westside voters. And I don’t think she is going to have the funds that Kennedy and Johnson will. That’s why I see her finishing a distant second, but still making the runoff.
Johnson will also have an impressive, strategic, and well-funded campaign. He’s smart, articulate, successful, and good-looking. He’ll work hard, but it won’t matter. He will not be in a runoff. Because no one knows who he is right now, and one election cycle isn’t enough time to change that in a city-wide race.
HOWEVER! If he were running in any of the city council elections that are happening this year, he would win any of those elections by a landslide. And if he did that, he would probably be a heavy favorite to win the mayor’s race in 4 to 8 years. But who has time for that, I guess.