The skill of accurately targeting voters is essential to succesful campaigns in competitve races. Every Field Director should be familar with basic trends and they should be aware of how well they are hitting their target once Early Voting begins. The following (below this paragraph) is data anyone can obtain. If you have been collecting good data within your campaign (ie candidate support IDs) you can cross reference this with the turnout, and make smart decions for your next day GOTV efforts. This is why it is so important to have user friendly voter data software, like VAN or Bancuet. I know some of you old schoolers still play with spreadsheets, but aint nobody got time for that!
Here is the Day 1 Breakdown:
Total Democrats 1710
Total Republicans 361
Democratic Breakdown
Day 1 History (Includes mail in ballots)
Election Voted Day 1 Total Early Voters
2020 Democratic Primary 3234 33,235 (11 days)
2018 D Primary Runoff 3643 11,118 (5 days)
2016 D Primary Runoff 2603 8,766 (5 days)
19 Newly Registered to Vote (post March 3, 2020)
35 First time voters (Registered before March 3, never voted from 2016 onwards in any election)
1515 Voted in March 2020 Primary
1057 Voted in 2016 Primary Runoffs and/or 2018 Primary Runoffs
Age Voted
18-29 92 (5%)
30-39 150 (9%)
40-49 207 (12%)
50-59 257 (15%)
60-69 481 (29%)
70-79 358 (21%)
80-89 123 (7%)
90-99 17 (1%)
100+ 1
Gender
Women 827
Men 859
Top Precincts
Precinct General Area Voted
24 (Coronado CC) 27
21 (Coronado CC) 26
126 (I10- loop375) 24
151 (Capistrano, LV) 22
11 (Redd&Resler) 20
35 (Rim Road) 20
153 (Del Valle High) 20
157 (Soccorro&Loop375) 20
Using a database, like Bancuet, is essential to strong voter targeting.
Okay, so you probably noticed that this is the lowest Day 1 by far in comparable races. Of course, a big reason for that is the pandemic, but also it is a Runoff Election, which almost always has smaller turnouts. However, the last two primary runoffs had only 5 days of early voting, and this one has 10. No doubt there is less urgency for voters knowing they have another 9 days before the end of Early Voting. I’m guessing we will have less voters the next 5-6 days, with a significant increase the last couple days.
One of the stupidest things campaigns do is try to get new voters out to vote. Out of 1710 voters only 54 were new voters. The other stupid thing they do is go after the “youth vote”. Only 5% are under the age of 30 while half of the voters are between the ages of 60-79. That’s the way it always is. Dont lose your race trying to be the campaign that finally turned out new, young voters. It aint gonna happen. Leave that mission to the nonprofits who dont have a win or lose deadline.
This is the first time I can ever recall seeing men lead women in an El Paso election. I know it’s only Day 1, and not by much, but still, interesting. I’m guessing when it’s all done, women will still lead the men in turnout. Come on, ladies! Don’t let us down.
I was surprised to see that Grandview (P69) and the Willows (P8&9) did not crack the Top Precincts, with some Lower Valley precincts taking their place. It makes sense since there is a very competitve Commissioners Court race there, so voters in that area are getting hit much harder than they are in other parts of the county. Alright folks, that’s it for now. Please feel free to comment your thoughts and questions.