Here is the breakdown for the first week of Early Voting. This only includes the data made available by Election’s Dept on their website as of July 6th, 2020 12pm.

 

Here is the Day 1 breakdown, (with ALL the voters):

Total Democrats      12,179

Total Republicans    2,149

 

Democratic Breakdown

Day 1 History (Includes mail in ballots up until July 2 )

Election                                                     Total Early Voters

2020 Democratic Primary                       33,235   (11 days)

2018 D Primary Runoff                            11,118  (5 days)

2016 D Primary Runoff                              8,766  (5 days)

 

133 (1%) Newly Registered to Vote (post March 3, 2020)

222 (1.8%) First time voters (Registered before March 3, never voted from 2016 onwards in any election)

10,478 Voted in March 2020 Primary

6,932 Voted in 2016 Primary Runoffs and/or 2018 Primary Runoffs

 

Age                Voted

18-29              496 (4.1%)

30-39            630 (5.2%)

40-49            864 (7.1%)

50-59            1164 (9.5%)

60-69            2972 (24.4%)

70-79            3852 (31.6%)

80-89            1,728 (14.2%)

90-99              326 (2.5%)

100+                 10 (0.0%)

Gender

Women          6,715 (55%)

Men                 5,307 (45%)

Top Precincts                General Area                   Voted

153                                (Del Valle High)                   142

92                                   (Cielo Vista)                       117

33                                       (Kern)                               116

126                            (Loop 375 and I-10)                115

149                            (Ysleta High School)               111

 

Not surprisingly the percentage of voters age 60+ has come down from 90% on the first day down to 72%, as the majority of mail-in ballots were received by the first day of Early Voting. Women are holding there 10 point+ lead over the men. The Lower Valley is traditionally known for low voter turnout, but 2 of the top 5 precincts are coming from Commissioner Court 3 Precinct, as Holguin and Perez continue to pound their GOTV targets.

 

Despite having the largest Day 1 turnout for any Primary election, we are just short of where we were in March after 5 days of Early Voting (though we may actually be slightly ahead with Mail-Ins that came in over the weekend). The daily turnouts for ‘in person voting’ are much smaller than they were in March, as we should expect being that this is a runoff election and there is an ongoing pandemic. So even though we are pretty close to where we were in March this far into Early Voting, I am expecting there will be less total Early Voters for this Run-Off than turned out in March. I am going to guess 25-26k total EV turnout, with the demographic percentages holding very close to as they are today.